Remember the old canard about giving a roomful of monkeys some typewriters and an infinite amount of time and they'll eventually produce the complete works of William Shakespeare? Silly idea. The purpose was to say that given enough time, anything will eventually happen. Well, given an infinite amount of time, some things are so improbable, they will never happen. For evolution to occur, many steps have to be taken. This is apparently not understood by the average believer in evolutionism who simply accepts what he or she has been told to think.
Emile Borel stated that highly improbable events will never occur. Eugenie Scott and the propaganda mill at the NCSE released an attack on creationists for "misinterpreting" Borel's claim. To use a common idiom, do the math.
Evolutionary biologists of today are confronted with the problem of explaining how such an enormous amount of information contained in the most basic cell could have been organized into a life form using only chance, material, and time. The historical explanation has been to claim that time on the order of billions of years will result in these complex structures. This article will mathematically model one simple aspect of cell formation and, using mathematical statistics, compute the expected waiting time for this structure to occur. I will also look at the ideas of Emile Borel, Michael Behe, William Dembski, and Emmett Williams as they relate to the effect time has on highly improbable events.
IntroductionTo see how everything adds up, you'll want to give your undivided attention to "Applying Probabilities to Evolution" and click here.
The motivation for this paper came from two conflicting statements that I carried around over several years and finally decided to attempt a resolution. The first is from the evolutionist George Wald claiming time is a great miracle worker in the molecules-to-man evolution process; the second is from the celebrated French probabilist Emile Borel stating that highly improbable events never occur. Since molecules-to-man evolution requires a huge sequence of highly improbable random events, these two statements are in direct conflict. I suspected that time has an approximate linear effect on highly improbable events while the requirement for the structures of life grows exponentially with complexity, thus time cannot be the miracle worker as claimed.