An Abundance of Dubious Models

by Cowboy Bob Sorensen

Models and simulations are important in many areas related to science, but they are only as good as the information that are utilized. Regular readers have seen many posts with links to articles discussing faulty models (including yesterday's "Increasing Dark Matter Desperation") using mathematics and various scenarios.

Models and projections are important to many scientific disciplines. This COVID-19 Coronavirus has been especially difficult for many reasons.
Credit: Freeimages / Sanja Gjenero
No researcher is completely unbiased and objective. They operate from their worldviews, presuppositions, and agendas. Many times, important data are ignored or even suppressed, which frequently happens with global climate change models. Michael Mann used a fraudulent "hockey stick" graph to support global warming. Indeed, environmentalists are driven by their emotions and agendas, with predictions that have failed many times over the years, often suppressing pertinent information and indulging in fake science (see "Climate Change Alarmism vs God" and "Deluded Guardians of the Planet"). Both evolutionists and environmental extremists are often guilty of tampering with data.

When dealing with the COVID-19 crisis, many models have been produced. Healthcare officials in governments around the world went into action with the data they had. Projections of extremely high death rates frightened many people, and COVID-19 is very contagious — but it is not nearly as lethal as other diseases. The survival rate is very high, but it is a long road to full recovery. The virus began in Wuhan, China, but the ChiComs gave false information that would have saved many lives. People depend on the World Health Organization for serious and accurate information, but details are coming to light that WHO may be complicit with China.

At the end of January, COVID-19 was considered no big deal, and people like New York City mayor Bill De Blasio, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Peolsi were urging people to get into crowded places in February and March. Warnings had been given but these politicians made things worse for people.

Many sources of information prompt us to question the validity of the models, but we tend to laugh off absurd studies such as flatulence spreading COVID-19 or conspiracy theories such as a link between the pandemic and 5G networks. The established guideline for social distancing is six feet (about two meters) from other people. A study that is largely ignored (and would be extremely impractical) is that 27 feet is the safe distance. Tests for the virus — at least initially — have been unreliable. These factors add to the fear and confusion. For that matter, social distancing and even self-quarantining seem to be helpful, but for people to congratulate themselves on their actions does not take into account all of the information; other factors are involved beyond personal space.

By the way, one big question for many people is why everyone is being restricted. Back in Bible times, people with contagious conditions were isolated, not everyone else. When the Apollo astronauts came back from the moon, they were quarantined for fear of space bugs or something. Why aren't we isolating the sick people instead of riding herd on the general populace?

This Coronavirus is aptly called novel, and scientists as well as the public are learning how to cope and deal with the situations. While they are learning, restraint would be in order. Health scientists like to do health scientist stuff and make projections, but they went with extreme worst-case scenarios at full gallop a mite too soon. We cannot fault them for not dealing with the economic impact and human factors, but like evolutionary scientists who see worm burrow fossils and claim to have evidence of our most ancient ancestor, they were too hasty. Projections on the death toll have been revised downward several times, and emergency field hospitals such as this one are being taken down because they are not needed.

Much of the data are skewed. If someone has the Coronavirus at death, it is different that someone who died solely because of the virus. Dr. Deborah Birx tells us that reports are "liberal", so the virus is not necessarily the cause of death, but only getting credit for the kill when there are other conditions. Accounts that medical professionals are assuming COVID-19 and putting the diagnosis code on the forms without testing the patient are surfacing. People have questions that are going unanswered right now.

Some of the cable news networks are showing a death counter almost like covering COVID-19 is a game show. In a way, it is to them because they are leftists and want the President to look bad. But experts have to do something with models and they need information to work with. Unfortunately, more information is muddying the waters retroactively because there is some suspicion that the virus had made landfall in the United States in December 2019. It is possible that people had the virus but did not even know it because they were asymptomatic. Others were sick and recovered. My wife suspects that she had the virus here in New York in January or February. Perhaps I am asymptomatic. Now, how do we get tested at this late date?

Parody of the atheist bus campaign sign (click for larger)
Original Image: Wikimedia Commons / Dan Etherington  (CC by 2.0)
Despite the panicporn, confusion, and fearmongering, God is in is still here and cares for us. I have several items for you. Some of this material will be dated rather quickly including the "video" below (other material was released after I made it), but there are things we can learn about gathering information and making models. Be aware that Plante and Stigall are news and political commentary (often with humor), not Christian ministries.